Friday, August 29, 2008

A Change in the Direction of Global Geopolitics

Excerpts from the Article entitled "Dramatic Shifts and Change in the Direction of Global Geopolitics" by Dr. Yusuf Makki of the Nationalist Democratic Rally (Ba'ath) in Bahrain.

The past few weeks were full of events, perhaps even with clear signs that we are nearing the end of the unipolar era, and returning to different centers and polarization in the international arena.
Perhaps the most important events of this was the Russian attitude towards the deployment of a U.S. defense system( anti-ballistic long-range missiles) on the territory of Poland. In this context, Deputy Chief of the Russian general staff, General Anatoly Togovetsin threatened that the deployment of this system will put Russian-American relations at risk and that they expose Poland to the risk of attack by Russian nuclear weapons.

This is the first time since the end of the Cold War between East and West that it is in the plans to set-up nuclear missiles in Europe, according to a British report. The reasons for this trend is the feeling of the Russian administration that there is a need to counter the U.S. strategy of encircling Russian territory. They may be used to weaken the deterrent capabilities, including having to resort to taking appropriate measures to counter the threats against national security. The British newspaper "The Times" quoted that the Kremlin plan, is likely to include the deployment of missiles in Kaliningrad- a Russian province situated between Lithuania and Poland. Kaliningrad has been declared a nuclear weapons-free-zone following an agreement between Moscow and Washington on reducing nuclear arsenals at the end of the cold war era.

The other major event is the Russian military intervention in Georgia, destroying a number of institutions and infrastructure and the recognition of the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia from the Georgian state and the general Turkish Pro-Russian stance.

An understanding of the recent events in Russian politics, requires a careful reading of developments in Russia and the surrounding areas, and its effects on international politics.

Former Russian President Putin has been able during his recent tenure to introduce Russia on the international scene, after recovering from the collapse and organizing at home. It began with the production of the latest fighter aircraft in the world, then continued with the announcement of a missile-system which can avoid "missle interception" capable also of carrying nuclear warheads. The hegemony of the U.S. administration gave him dedicated allies, Venezuelan president Chavez's latest arms deals and aircraft and ballistic weapons to Syria show this.

At the global level, Russia opposed the decision to impose further sanctions on Iran, and has announced reservation at a decision by the UN Security Council to form an international tribunal for the killers of the late Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. He also questioned the issuance of another resolution from the Security Council to close the file of Iraqi weapons of mass destruction. He strongly opposed US policy in Kosovo, despite the Left's silence and urged a steadfast stop to the European missile shield project which was announced by President George W. Bush, he threatened to return the cold war and stop the disarmament talks. It also expelled four British diplomats and refusing to extradite several Russian security service members accused of killing a Briton under the argument that the Constitution does not allow extradition of Russian citizens to another state. He also used vetoed condemnation of the President of Zimbabwe. All indications from the Kremlin clarify in unequivocal terms the return of the cold war climate with new formulations of more pragmatism and objectivity, and away from the glint in ideological disputes.

Recent developments, without a doubt will be a new era in the history of international relations, and will end the era of emergency in human history, the uniqueness of the era in which American decision-making violated and flouted all international laws and norms.

We have been in the era of uni-polarity after the end of the Cold War. A dark and grim era in human history, which resulted in the emergence of "new McCarthyism" and the occupation of Afghanistan and Iraq and creating ethnic, sectarian and fundamentalist lines in an attempt to ignite civil war in Iraq, Algeria and Somalia, Yemen and Lebanon with the overall aim of disintegrating social fabric there and in a number of other Arab countries in preparation for the creation of a state of fragmentation and ripping them further apart. They have imposed a siege and a state of emergency on Palestinian towns and cities and build roadblocks and walls. If the occupation of Afghanistan and Iraq, is a genuine expression of the manifestations of the end of the Cold War, and the rule of unilateralism, the events of Georgia, the Russian attitude towards the planned missile shield developed in Eastern Europe perhaps represent a new era in international relations. A return to the era of accountability to charters, treaties and conventions, and a restoration of the confidence in international law and the Charter of the United Nations. It will be the outcome of this era of reformulation of the map of alliances in the world, enabling a number of countries to escape the grip of dominationalism.

What are the features of the new era, and their effects on the Arab reality, and how those changes should be taken by us, us Arabs, and other issues related, will be the subject of discussion at the next talk, God willing.

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